Mar 10, 2026
3 min read
Although One Battle After Another and The Sinners have the upper hand at the Oscars, many categories are still very much up for grabs, including the challenge of Chalamet vs.Jordan and the one between international films.
We've already illustrated the situation in the technical and musical categories in the first part of our predictions for the 2026 Oscars, in particular the three films that are preparing to take the lion's share of the individual candidates and fight for almost every statuette possible: Frankenstein, The Sinners and One Battle After Another.These last two titles, with sixteen and thirteen nominations respectively, are also the clear favorites in the remaining categories and announce a duel that will continue until the last envelope of the ceremony is opened.And if the result was a foregone conclusion in some of the five games, in others the game remains more uncertain than ever.Below is a detailed breakdown of the major Oscar categories, along with predictions for the favorites, contenders and possible surprises on Sunday night...
The Oscar category for the best documentary is much more uncertain than usual, because this year the predecessors are divided between different titles and no one candidate dominates the others. Our prediction goes in favor of the true crime documentary, The Perfect Neighbor by Geeta Gandbhir, focusing on violence in the American suburbs and the use of guns, but other strong contenders are Mr. Nobody AgainstPutin, a BAFTA award-winning European co-production, and The Alabama Solution, a rejection of America's prison system.
Prediction: The Perfect Neighbor (runner-up: Mr. Nobody vs. Putin)
Best Animated Film
In an atypical year for Best Animated Feature, Pixar has one of its weakest nominees ever ( Elio ) and two French entries, including the more complex and vocal arc Arco and Little Amelie .Nine years after the Oscars, Disney tried again with the successful Zootropolis 2, but this time all the odds were flying the Netflix flag in favor of the award's undisputed favorite, Maggie Kang and Chris Appelhans' KPop monster hunters.
Prediction: KPop Demon Hunters (2nd Prize: Zootropolis 2)
Best International Film
For the second time in Academy history and the second time in Academy history, two Best International Picture Oscar nominees are also competing for Best Picture: Kleber Mendonça Filho's political thriller about the Brazilian dictatorship and Joachim Trier's nominated Norwegian family drama The Value of a Soul.won this category for the first time.A year ago, another Brazilian film, I'm Here , made a stunning comeback against its favorite and won an Oscar: Can the critically acclaimed Secret Agent repeat the feat?On paper, in our opinion, Psychic Value remains the favorite, but it faces a category where the outcome will be uncertain until the end.
Prediction: Sentimental Value (runner-up: Secret Agent)
Best Original Screenplay
Speaking of sentimental value, when the nominations were announced, it was reasonable to assume that Joachim Trier's acclaimed film might also win a well-deserved Oscar for Best Original Screenplay.However, Hollywood's collective enthusiasm for Sinners and the results of its various predecessors makes us think that Ryan Coogler's unusual vampire film is the winner of this category, despite competition from titles like Sentimental Value and Marty Super.
Prediction: Ryan Coogler, The Sinners (runner-up: Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value)
Best adapted scenario
A more obvious result is the Oscar for the adapted screenplay: in his sixth nomination as a screenwriter, the great Paul Thomas Anderson has already retained this statue for his bad and free adaptation of the novel Vineland by Thomas Pynchon, a literary source on which the American filmmaker is based on one battle after another.Anderson's main competitor is Hamnet, written by the director Chloé Zhao and the author of the novel of the same name, Maggie O'Farrell, but the victory of the Battle after the battle is given.
Prediction: Paul Thomas Anderson, Battle After Battle (Almost: Chloé Zhao and Maggie O'Farrell, Hamnet)
Best supporting actress
We face one of the most open and "lively" categories of the current awards season: that of Best Supporting Actress.So far, the various awards have been distributed more or less equally among three candidates: Teyana Taylor, the revolutionary guerrilla from one battle after another, won the Golden Globe;Anglo-Nigerian actress Wunmi Mosaku won a BAFTA for her performance in The Sinners;while veteran Amy Madigan just won the SAG Award, renamed the Actor Award, for the horror film Armas.Each of them can boast that they have a concrete chance of winning, but our predictions are in favor of Amy Madigan, her second Oscar nomination forty years after the first (a record): because although Armas may seem a film very far from the taste of the Academy, her interpretation of the terrifying Aunt Gladys really left her mark and, as her triumph on the stage can take the Oscar to the acting stage.
Prediction: Amy Madigan, Weapons (Other: Teyana Taylor, Battle for Battle)
Best supporting actor
Speaking of villains, the other good guy in last year's cinema was Colonel Lockjo, played by Sean Penn in one battle after another with brutal histrionics.Although Penn did not participate much in the promotion, his work already won him a BAFTA award and an Actor award for Best Supporting Actor, Benicio Del Toro's domestic competition Maybe, competing for the film by Paul Thomas Anderson (but with a small role).After films for Mystic River and Milk, will the Academy give Sean Penn a third Oscar?The instructions on this page indicate that there is only one thing that is not known: as it happened at the Golden Globes, the majority of the jury prefers a classic of the big screen.Sweden's Stellan Skarsgård chose to present the Best Actor in a Motion Picture award.
Prediction: Sean Penn, Battle After Battle (runner-up: Stellan Skarsgård, Emotional Value)
Among the four categories reserved for performers, this year's Oscar for best actress is the only one whose outcome seems predetermined: The Academy is, in fact, preparing to crown Jessie Buckley, who will soon become the first Irish woman to win an Oscar for leading actress.Buckley, in her second career nomination after The Dark Daughter, won trophies thanks to her poignant portrayal of Agnes Shakespeare in Hamnet, a literary-inspired drama directed by Chloe Zhao, undermining the odds.for her most credible competitors: the Norwegian Renate Rosemental from Australia, especially. much applauded for her sensational performance in the indie film If Only I Could Kick You, which nevertheless does not have the same visibility as Hamnet.
Prediction: Jessie Buckley;Hamnet (runner-up: Rose Byrne, If I Could)
On the contrary, the Oscar category for the best actor is threatened by an uncertain and difficult challenge, with a head-to-head between two candidates and the possibility, reduced but not empty, of the surprise passing the "third person".Surprises and questions can come from Hollywood's favorite par best, Leonardo DiCaprio, on the wave of enthusiasm for one war after another, or even from Brazil Wagner Moura, knowing the fall at Cannes and at the Golden Globes for Secret Agent;but more importantly, Timothée Chalamet and Michael B. Jordan will compete for the Oscar.Chalamet, who was considered the favorite until a few days ago because of his inspiring performance in Marty Supreme, saw that he would win his victory when the Screen Actors Guild awarded the Award to not him, but Michael B. Jordan, for the role of the twins Smoke and Stack Moore in The Sinners.His two writings and music in this film do not represent "Oscar work", but the passion for sinners is that it makes us bet on Jordan for the award, even knowing that it will be a race and the last vote between him and Timothée Chalamet.
Va'aiga: Michael B. Jordan, The Sinners (tumu: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme)
With his fourth nomination in the category (after There Will Be Blood, Hidden Clues and Licorice Pizza), Paul Thomas Anderson is finally on the verge of winning the hallowed Best Director Oscar for his most successful film. Anderson has won every trophy this year in War After War, so his Oscar crown now seems inevitable. The remaining five nominees, including Ryan Coogler, are a real possibility.No, on the other hand he should console himself with the success of the screenplay for The Sinner.
Credit: Paul Thomas Anderson, Battle for Battle (Credit: Ryan Coogler, Sinners)
On the one hand, One Battle After Another, a film that received recognition throughout the awards season, from the Golden Globes to the BAFTAs, up to the Critics and the American Guild Awards, and which was immediately identified as one of the masterpieces of modern cinema.Oscar.The race for best film will therefore be resolved in a duel between these two works, which are among the strongest candidates of recent years: but the one capable of gathering the most transversal consensus is probably Paul Thomas Anderson's political thriller, which has already proven itself throughout the awards season.So our prediction is one battle after another, but we don't exclude the possibility that The Sinners could achieve a sensational overtaking.
Prediction: One battle after another (Runner: Sinner)
