"Venezuela and oil will have little impact on Switzerland" - TVS

"Venezuela and its oil will have little impact on Switzerland"

According to economists, an American attack in Venezuela or the tragedy in Crans-Montana should have a significant impact on the Swiss economy, whose growth will slow down for 2026 anyway due to the difficult international context.

The events linked to the US attack in Venezuela should not have a big impact on the Swiss economy: this is the opinion of economists interviewed by the AWP agency about the economic growth expected for 2026.

In general, the growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to be around 1%, a slight decrease compared to the year 2025 and at a lower level than the long-term potential, i.e. the average of the last decade.

Above all, growth has been held back by a challenging international environment.Europe's expansion remains moderate in many countries, and no further acceleration is expected from the US, although the economy has so far performed surprisingly well.Meanwhile, demand in China remains sluggish.In this environment, companies should continue to invest cautiously.

The beginning of the new year also leaves little hope for a quick improvement.On the contrary, the recent events in Venezuela are even more difficult for the climate.At least for now, the immediate impact on the Swiss economy should be limited: no significant impact in Switzerland, said Raiffeisen economist Alexander Koch.

Venezuela exports little oil

Venezuela has the world's largest proven oil reserves, but its oil industry, which has been mismanaged for years, currently exports only a limited amount.Even in the event of a dramatic increase in Venezuela's oil supply and a complete collapse, the current global oil market will not face any pressure.

Arthur Juris Oddo BHF expresses a similar opinion: "At the moment there is no significant impact of recent international events on the Swiss economy."The oil market continues to be characterized by ample overall supply and high inventories.However, developments so far have not led to persistent tensions over energy prices.

However, possible consequences cannot be completely ruled out.According to the expert, the possible consequences of the second round must be closely monitored, especially in terms of sanctions, logistical disruptions or larger energy shocks.These factors can in certain situations take on greater macroeconomic significance.

Claude Mauer of BAK Economics considers the development of Venezuela as another cause of uncertainty, which does not significantly change the already tense climate worldwide. The risk of a new escalation between the United States and China has risen again: but only when the clear effects on oil prices will be predictable when there are changes in inflation and interest rate assumptions, which in turn can affect the market and the economy. It is clear at the moment whether more or less oil will be extracted in Venezuela in the future.not

At the national level, the drama in Crans-Montana (Canton of Valais) is now having a negative impact on the general mood.Switzerland's image as a tourist destination may have suffered a major blow: but economists do not believe this will have a negative impact in the medium to long term."Markets and economies are indifferent to catastrophes," Maurer said.

Santosh Briyo, an expert at Migros Bank, agrees: According to tourism officials, there have been no suspensions or cancellations in the region so far.The situation is not expected to change significantly as people not directly involved in such events are usually only temporarily affected or confused.Although spending on parties and celebrations may see a temporary reduction, this should be limited in time and isolated regionally.

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