Dec 06, 2025
3 min read
US Macro Data Release: A 25 basis point Fed rate cut on December 10 is now almost certain.The spread remains below 70 basis points
The Ftse Mib closed down 0.2% at 43,432 points, having bucked parity shortly before 5 p.m.Among the red stocks were banks, with Mediobanca losing 1.8% and Fineco and Mediolanum losing 1.5% and 1.4% respectively.Eni also performed poorly (-1.5%).
Dysorin ended the week on a countertrend, ending the day with a gain of 3.6%, closely followed by Amplifon (+3.46%) and Stellantis (+2.26%).
The spread remains below 70 points.
At the end of trading, the main European indices closed mixed: Ftse 100 -0.46%;Cac 40 -0.09%;Dak +0.6%.Wall Street remains above parity.
At around 16:05, the Ftse Mib index rose 0.3%, driven by Diasorin which gained +4%, Amplifon (+3%), Stmicroelectronics (+2.6%) and Stellantis (+2.4%).Among the decliners were Eni which lost 1.7%, Mediobanka which lost 1.2%, Fineco (-0.6%) and Italgas (-0.6%).The gap remains at the minimum level of 69 basis points.
Wall Street is moving into positive territory, while macro data is published with inflation figures (+2.8% in September) in line with expectations.
As US futures lost traction (-0.10% in Dow Jones), a flurry of US macro data, including PCE, important for the Fed, awaits in Piazza Afari, Ftse Mib is rising, but without any bite (+0.14% to 43,590 points at 14:40), supported by Stifellantias, Trioro.Ampliphone and
Markets are now almost certain that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points next week (December 10), an expectation shared by Matthias Scheiber, head of Multi-Asset Solutions at Allspring Global Investments."As has happened so far this year, we expect the cuts to be accompanied by a press conference in the name of tight monetary policy. Based on the current estimate of the neutral rate and a cumulative reduction of 75 basis points in 2025, it is unlikely that the Fed will make another cut in early January," predicts Scheiber."To justify further easing, the data would need to show a significant slowdown in the economy, especially the labor market. Currently, market assessments include three full cuts through October 2026."
At the level of investing in bondsThe 10-year US Treasury yield around 4% appears to be correctly priced. “We prefer a steeper strategy in the mid-to-long end, especially the 5s/30 range, as we continue to see long-term pressure,” Scheiber advised. “Investment grade levels and high yield spreads remain unattractive for new purchases.We are comfortable adding to this further. We also prefer local currency debt in emerging markets over government bonds in developed markets.”
In Piazza Afari, the Ftse Mib rose by a whopping +0.14% to 43,579 points at 12.50.Ampliphone, Diazorin, STM and Stellantis outperformed the market, continuing the rally that started two days ago amid positive comments from analysts.Eni (-2.12%) and Italgas (-1.18%) remained heavy.
Oil prices hit despite his talk of peace in Ukraine.Brent futures lost 0.05% to 63.22 a barrel and WTI futures lost 0.15% to 59.58 a barrel.
In the national security strategy document, the Trump administration defined its general strategy for Europe and emphasized Washington's commitment to rebuilding the "ancient great powers" of the old continent.
Priorities highlighted by the United States include: re-establishing conditions of stability in Europe and strategic stability with Russia;allowing Europe to stand on its own two feet and act as a group of aligned sovereign nations taking primary responsibility for their own defense without being dominated by a hostile power;fostering resistance to the current trajectory of Europe in certain European states."
And again: «open European markets to American goods and services and guarantee fair treatment of American workers and businesses; strengthen the healthy nations of Central, Eastern and Southern Europe through trade ties, arms sales, political cooperation and cultural and educational exchanges; end the perception and prevent the reality of NATO as an ever-expanding alliance; encourage Europe to take action against mercantilist excesses, technological theft, cyber-espionageand other hostile economic practices.” Even so, the document continues, Europe remains “strategically and culturally vital to the United States.”
European stock markets confirm their partial rise (Dax +0.52%, Cac40 +0.28%, Ftse100 +0.28% and Ftse Mib +0.11% at 43,566 points at 11:30 Diasorin, Amplifon, Prysmian, Nexi, Béstellantis and CTMellantis), according to Eurostats, The europss and third Eurostats, The Eurostas.(+0.05 percent to $1.1648) after the release of data on euro zone GDP, which grew 0.3 percent in the third quarter of 2025, after 0.1 percent.This number is higher than the second estimate, which showed a 0.2% increase.According to the second estimate, the GDP grew by 1.4 percent during the year.and was below 1.5% in the previous quarter.
In Italy alone, GDP is expected to grow by 0.5% in 2026, up from 0.7% in 2026.GDP growth will be offset by pent-up domestic demand.
The Btp/Bund spread remains below 70 at 69.35 basis points.The BTP-Bund spread, at its lowest level since 2009, represents a financial signal of great importance, both for the bond market and for Italy's macroeconomic expectations.risk aversion in European markets, an improvement in the perceived fiscal framework and greater international demand for government bonds in the euro area, explained the bank's director from the French bank with France.
This occurred in a context of relatively high nominal rates compared to the ten-year average, so the BTP results remain decisive for German bonds.
For investors who have purchased stocks with high characteristics and spreads of more than 150-180 points in the past two years, "the current period represents an improvement in capital performance. On the contrary, for those who have invested," Meghna advises, "BTPS Coupons continue to be available above the bundle, but now on a smaller scale, which makes it less comfortable to increase the number of repetitions of Italian debt. On the contrary, the situation may be favorable for those who intend to create a balanced portfolio: although it has retreated, it is still declining, but it remains optimistic.
Piazza Affari's Ftse Mib index remained steady at 43,554 points, with BTP/Bund spreads below 70 basis points at 10:20am.Diasorin, Nexi, Prysmian, Stellantis and STM rose more than 1 percentage point, not enough to add energy to the Milan roster.In particular, Eni (-1.9%) and Gas Italia (-0.91%) have gone in the opposite direction.
The euro continued to gain 0.10% to $1.1654, although Italian trade did not pick up in October and food and non-food retail sales were flat for the year.
In, in the purchase of the people to buy, was recorded in the month, growing in the bigger and more food and + 0.4%.Unless they have a change in the amount of confirmation of the cost of the cost of the cost of the cost of the cost of the cost of the domestic cost (+,0%): + 0,3%):
"In October, despite the annual increase in value of + 1.3%, sales remained constant in volume. Those who suffer above all are small businesses which, compared to 2024, record a contraction of -0.5% for the areas sold "+ 0.8%".
While in Spain, manufacturing activity was 1.2% annualized in October, following a 1.5% increase in the previous month.On a monthly basis, it is up 0.7%, compared to a 0.3% increase in September.
European stock markets rose slightly at the start of the session.The Dax increased by 0.15%, the Cac40 increased by 0.21%, the Ftse100 increased by 0.145% and the Ftse Mib increased by 0.07% to 43,548 points.US futures were also a fraction higher, with the S&P 500 at +0.23%.Sentiment before the release of PCE, the preferred gauge of the Fed to control inflation It is cautious.Consensus shows the trend figure for August at 2.8% from 2.7% in August, with the main component flat at 2.9%.
With the ECB looking ahead to 2027, investors remain focused on US borrowing costs ahead of the FOMC, which is expected to cut rates by a quarter of a percentage point on December 10 (priced at nearly 90%).
After rising in recent sessions, Treasury yields are stabilizing (10-year 4.10%) while the dollar is weak against major currencies.The yen is at 154.356 and the euro is at 1.1667 (+0.21%).
Published before the start, German industrial orders data in October rose 1.5% compared to the previous month.On an annual basis, however, a negative dynamics of minus 0.7% is maintained.In September, + 2% was recorded, and -3.7% on an annual basis.Instead, industrial production in France fell less than expected. It showed a month-on-month increase of 0.2% in October, after +0.7% the previous month, while consensus expected a 0.1% decline.
The yield on the 10-year BTP rose to 3.48% and the spread with covenant fell to 69.78 basis of the lower osticons.Bonds offered at auction on Thursday, from December 11.
According to big specialists, BTP will be opened in January 2029, 2032, 2032, 2032, and with ultra-long-term guarantees up to 7 billion euros. The day before, 9 billion 12-month 12-month bots were available to investors.giving his opinion about the debt
In the Milan price list, the MPs fell 0.68% to 7.58 euros at the meeting of the board of directors.The board has the results of the investigation by the investigation office of Luigi Lovaglio, CEO of Luigi Lotaglio, as part of the investigation by the Milan prosecutor's office.The investigation of the "Milan Prosecutor's Office" is aimed at influencing Monte (-1.27% to 16.46 euros) to influence Monte Mediobanca.
According to investigators, businessman Francesco Caltaghiria and Delfin's number one, Francesco Milleri, were the directors of such a double occult alliance.Lovaglio Piagetta contributed to this "coordinated strategy" to take over Cucia.Among all, Barclays raised its target price from 7.8 to 8.8 euros (equal to weight), on the other hand, it is underweight and the target price from 17.9 to 17.5 euros.
Staying in the banking sector, Bancco Bpm (+0.2% to EUR 12.11) is a vassier study, according to several sources.The connection between the Milaneli center and one of its main instruments, the foundation ESAASCO, which grants pensions to the advertising agency, and piazza Mena can be closely related.The group is led by Giuseppe RallGNA can enter the headquarters of Aute of In-Holt in the Milan ProSector office in the Caltagirone group, Deflini and Lovaglio.
Stellanis continues to rise (+ 1.69% to 10.35 euros) despite the Canadian government notifying the group of vehicles that messed with the taxpayers by changing the plant sector.
Industry Minister Mélanie Joly first threatened legal action in October, shortly after Stellantis announced it was scrapping plans to manufacture the Jeep Compass SUV in Brampton, Ontario, and moving production to Illinois.Stellantis said it would invest $13 billion in the United States over four years, in part to reduce Trumo's tax costs.The Canadian government has pledged more than C$500 million ($358 million) to Stellantis.help cover the cost of two council offices in the country.
"Today, December 4, I am announcing that we are serving Stellans with a notice of default," Jolie told the House of Representatives.About 3,000 irregular workers are currently on the offensive.The company is also a partner in the USTArio electric battery plant in the south that will receive billions of dollars in production subsidies.Canada helped beessiru, now part of Stellantis, when it was in financial trouble.during the global financial crisis.
The purchase of IVIO (+ 1.74% to 26.25 euros), which is scheduled for 25 from 2025 euros in 2025
Instead, Edf is considering selling a minority of Edison's capital (+ 0.62% for saving shares at 2.45 euros, the only one listed), the Italian subsidiary that produces electricity and gas, in an IPO or to a third-party partner.Edison CEO Nicola Monti said this in an interview with Reuters.The Transalpine giant aims to ensure Edison avoids future debt.
Finally, it should be noted that Jp Morgan has proposed a rating on eni (-1.24% to 16.14 euros) classification
European equities (+0.17% Eurostoxx50 futures) are expected to be slightly higher at the start of the session, as are US futures (+0.08% Dow Jones and +0.19% S&P500), amid mixed signals from central banks, while the Reserve Bank of India cut interest rates by 525%.
Governor Sanjay Malhotra said inflation has "moderated significantly" and is expected to be lower than earlier forecasts.Confidence in the dynamism of the Indian economy was also confirmed by the central bank, which updated its real GDP growth estimates for fiscal year 2026.
Meanwhile, Retuters sources indicated that the BOJ would be inclined to raise rates at the December meeting and that the government should accept this decision.In the United States, expectations for a 25-point rate cut remained unchanged on Dec. 10 after initial jobless claims data showed a contraction to 191,000, the lowest level since September 2022.
The dollar struggles with the euro the euro 1.1656 (+ 10%) production in October in 8 October at 15
However, from the Fed's perspective, US consumer spending in September, the decline in September consumer prices, household income and industrial orders are important and close at the same time as the preliminary Michigan Household Confidence Index for December.
The general frequency of Ukraine is focused on the fact that the previous prices fell slightly after falling slightly, especially on the recent Ukrainian territories.After the President of Russia, Vladimir Prinin, cable cable people should be taken from our building "we will take it by force".
Brent futures lost 0.05% to $63.23 a barrel, while WTI futures lost 0.15% to $59.58 a barrel.Both contracts rose nearly 1% on Dec. 4 and are still on track for a weekly gain of 1.5%, supported by expectations of a Fed rate cut and rising tensions between the United States and Venezuela.
On the other hand, any geopolitical escalation will increase prices.He stressed that OPEC+ had agreed to keep production steady until early next year, so that would provide more support for prices.Markets are also bracing for a possible U.S. military strike on Venezuela after President Donald Trump said last week that the U.S. would begin "very soon" to stop Venezuelan drug traffickers on the mainland.A move that could pose risks to Venezuela's 1.1 million barrels per day of oil production, mostly destined for China.
In the price list of Milan, the attention of the MPS who joins the board of directors.The table contains an update of what emerged from the investigation of the Milan prosecutor's office, which saw the investigation of the CEO of the Bank Luigi Lovaglio of Siena.An investigation by the Milan prosecutor's office about that acquisition led Monte to win over Mediobanca.According to the investigators, the businessman Franciscus Caltagirone and one Delfin, Franciscus Millari, is the director of the alleged secret agreement that led to Opis.This "planned plan" must work to win Lovaglio Piazzetta Cuccia.Among other things, Barclays raised the price target on MPS from 7.8 to 8.2 euros (equal weight rating), in contrast to the Mediobanker rating from equal weight to underweight and the price target from 17.9 to 17.5.he did
Remaining in the banking sector, Banco Bpm is studying Miria's holding file, according to multiple sources speaking to MF-Milano Finanza.The Milanese Institute and one of its main shareholders, Ensarco, which provides pensions to commercial agents and is a shareholder in Piazza Meda with a 1.4% stake, will soon be closely related.The team led by Giuseppe Castagna could soon enter the Italian capital.Ensarco, an in-house asset management company with around 3 billion euros in assets, manages the assets and was cited in a search decree by the Milan prosecutor's office in connection with an alleged concert between Caltagirone, Delfin and the Lovaglio group.
Stallantis will also be under scrutiny after the Canadian government told the automaker it was in default on taxpayer-funded financing after it moved part of its car production to a U.S. plant.
In October, Industry Minister Melissa Joly threatened legal action after Stellantis announced the cancellation of the Bravelass SUV.Stellantis said it will invest $13 billion in the U.S. over four years, in part to reduce the tax costs of the Trumo administration.The Canadian government has pledged more than C$500 million (US$358 million) to Stellantis to cover the costs of the two assembly plants.
"Today, December 4, I announced that we have worked stellantis with a notice of contract," Joly told the group's delegation.About 3,000 union workers are now on furlough.The company is also a partner in the electric vehicle battery factory in southern Ontario, which is set to receive millions of dollars in production.He recalled that Canada helped bail out Chrysler, now part of Stellantis, when it had financial problems during the global financial crisis.
Instead, EDF, the Italian subsidiary producing electricity and gas, considering selling a minority stake in Edison, Edision CEO Nicola Monty tells Reuters in an interview.The purpose of the Transalpine Giant is to avoid consolidating Edison's future debt.
Finally, it is important to note that JP Morgan downgraded Eni from overweight to underweight (target price of €15.50), while Berenberg raised its target price on Technogym from €15.20 to €18.60 and reiterated a buy rating.(reproduction reserved)
